Over the last three decades, the U.S. has lost more than 50% of the world’s global export business share for corn and soybeans. With a world population that grew by 2.5 billion people over the same period, how is that possible? 

The reality, as long-time readers have heard me say before, is that Brazil and Argentina (the Global South) have, metaphorically, beaten us up on our own playground and taken our lunch money. How did this happen? 

• American companies transferred their technology, capital, equipment and genetics.
• U.S. yield growth has slowed while Brazil has added tens of millions of acres into farmland – with considerable room for additional growth. Much of their land is double cropped.
• Government policies have played a large role, as Brazil combined cheap land with favorable tax policy, along with government incentives for port investment and favorable currency exchanges. By comparison, the U.S. has done little with export expansion, infrastructure modernization or bilateral trade agreements.
• U.S. trade wars pushed China to Brazil – permanently.
• A strong U.S. dollar made our commodities more expensive. 
   

The U.S. didn’t lose export share because Brazil has better farmers; it lost its market share because South America grew faster, while U.S. policy choices – ranging from trade wars, biofuels, under-invested infrastructure, a strong dollar and more – created openings for the Global South, which those countries opportunistically took advantage of. 

Can we get that market share back? Possibly. Brazil and Argentina are not without problems – mainly of the political and economic variety. By most accounts, their land is not as fertile and productive as the U.S., but fertilizers and agronomy practices have somewhat leveled the playing field – for now. Their input costs – especially fertilizers – are higher than the U.S. But the U.S. needs to be more proactive in many of the same areas we were neglecting when we lost markets.

This article appeared in the Q4 2025 issue of our AgViews newsletter.