Rational Reflections July 2026

Modern skyscraper facades with financial graphs in blue and yellow, conveying a theme of dynamic economic activity.

Many investors believe the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, but in our latest Rational Reflections, we explore how the rate that matters most to your portfolio – the 10-year Treasury yield – is set by the market. The 10-year Treasury yield is driven by two factors: expected inflation and expected growth. Drawing on 70 years of data, we explain why the Fed has less control than the headlines suggest.

Investing and wealth management products are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee,  may lose value,  are not a deposit and not insured by any federal government agency.