In recent years, the U.S. agricultural trade balance has shifted in ways that raise concerns across the farming sector. Historically, the U.S. has been a dominant force in global agricultural trade, exporting more food and agricultural products than it imports. However, a growing agricultural trade deficit—where imports exceed exports—is posing challenges for farmers, agribusinesses, and consumers alike.

The U.S. global ag trade dominance has certainly declined. We’ve gone from being the world’s breadbasket to being a net importer. As recently as 2014, the U.S. had a $43 billion ag trade surplus. In 2025, we’re projected to have a $45 billion deficit, according to the USDA. Several factors are contributing to this shift, including: 

• Increased imports of specialty crops and consumer goods: The U.S. imports large quantities of fresh fruits, vegetables and processed foods, particularly from regions with year-round growing conditions.
• Decreasing exports: The U.S. only has an ag trade surplus in grains and oilseeds.
• Trade policy shifts and retaliatory tariffs: Trade disputes with key partners, including China and the European Union, have led to reduced demand for certain U.S. exports.
• Strong dollar value: A higher U.S. dollar makes American products more expensive for foreign buyers while making imports cheaper for American consumers and businesses.
• Shifting global demand: Countries that once depended heavily on U.S. agricultural products are sourcing alternatives elsewhere – mainly the Global South, which comprises countries in Central and South America, Africa and more – leading to declining export revenues.

The widening trade deficit coincides with rising input costs for U.S. farmers. While producers seek ways to reduce expenses and improve efficiency, the loss of international markets only exacerbates financial difficulties. Without stable export channels, many producers must either rely more on domestic markets — where competition is intense — or explore alternative revenue streams.

Our three largest ag trading partners are China, Canada and Mexico. Interestingly, the latter two also represent our largest agricultural trade deficits. It would seem that we should be able to make something work for those two. Who benefits from all this uncertainty? The clear winner is the Global South, particularly Brazil and Argentina.

The agricultural trade deficit doesn’t just impact farmers; it also influences consumers in various ways. As imports rise, U.S. consumers increasingly rely on foreign agricultural products. While this expands food choices and ensures year-round availability of certain crops, it also raises concerns about food security and supply chain stability. A greater reliance on imports means food costs are increasingly subject to international economic conditions.

The historical resilience of U.S. agriculture may be tested over the next few years. But it would be a mistake to bet against U.S. farmers and ranchers successfully adapting to changing economic conditions.

This article appeared in the Q2 2025 issue of Bell’s AgViews newsletter.