As I write this in mid-September, we’re in the middle of harvest for many crops. Yields are about as variable as any harvest season I can remember. In many cases, it depends on whether you were under the right cloud at the right time and caught some helpful rain. If so, you may have a decent (though maybe not a great) yield this fall. But if you were just a few miles away and caught very little rain, it’s likely a different story. Some areas around North Dakota received less than 30% of normal rainfall this summer. 

Here are some of the other things I’m watching around the ag economy this fall: 

• The grain market has been seeing positive signs lately, with corn around the $5 mark and soybeans nearing the “teens” ($13, specifically). Wheat is also up, with local prices around $7. What’s causing the recent market strength? War, weather and geopolitics are probably the biggest contributors. 
   
• With harvest in full swing, rising diesel prices couldn’t have come at a worse time, as many producers have a heavy demand for fuel this time of year. Prices around $6 per gallon for diesel are taking a big bite out of producers’ expense budgets and profitability. Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be much relief in the short term. 
   
• President Trump recently announced plans to import 300,000 metric tons (660 million pounds) of ground beef to help consumers. It remains to be seen how much it accomplishes that goal – it undeniably doesn’t help cattle producers. 
   
• You can’t turn on the news or read the paper without hearing or reading an article about artificial intelligence or data centers. Both elicit strong opinions. AI can do some incredible things, including in crop and livestock agriculture, as we’ve discussed in this newsletter before. But at the same time, there is concern that all of this is moving too quickly, with minimal guardrails and an increasing chance of unintended consequences. Technology always outruns regulation. Any reining in of AI needs to be done and agreed upon globally – not just in the U.S.
   
• The Federal Reserve recently announced a 0.25% fed funds rate increase. This was not unexpected. It’s worth noting that the Fed only has control in setting the short-term or variable rate. The market sets fixed rates for the longer term. So, for farm borrowers, this will likely mean the interest rate on operating loans will go up, but long-term fixed rates for land or equipment may – or may not – increase. 
   
• The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate set by Congress: maximum employment, stable prices (inflation) and moderate long-term interest rates. Even though it’s actually three goals, if you take care of the first two, the last one (moderate long-term rates) will take care of itself. 
   
• Interest costs have been on a steady rise over the past few years, up 63% since 2018. Coupled with farm debt increasing 50% over the same period, you get a picture of how important interest rates are to producers’ profitability. A sliver of good news is that a lot of the farm debt – mainly for real estate – is set at a fixed rate, which helps to buffer the latest increase, at least in the short term.

This article was published in the Q3 2026 issue of our AgViews newsletter.